We have spent a good part of this week on Capitol Hill getting a sense of what to expect in the lame duck session of Congress that begins on Tuesday, Nov. 16 and is scheduled to end by Friday, November 19. As this is written, it appears there is a good potential that fiscal 2005 spending bills will be done. There is little potential for anything else to be completed.

Our contacts with people on both sides of the Capitol lead us to expect that an "omnibus" package of up to eight appropriations bills will be assembled by staff in the first part of the week and will emerge for floor consideration later in the week. This package will contain all the uncompleted appropriations bills except one -- Energy &Water. That bill is being held up by Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nevada), the presumptive incoming Senate Minority Leader, over the issue of the planned nuclear waster repository in Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The overall contours of the legislation are being worked out over the weekend. The main unknown is the degree to which the White House and/or more conservative members will seek to squeeze spending levels. It appears the biggest push for restraint may come in the form of an effort by Rep. Mike Pence (R-Indiana) to move a "continuing resolution" that would freeze spending at fiscal 2004 levels. If such an amendment were to succeed on the House floor and then be adopted by the Senate, the impact on project funding earmarks would be substantial and -- most likely -- negative. We do not expect such an attempt to succeed, but will be monitoring the process continually as it unfolds.

The other major item slated for consideration by Congress next week is the intelligence reform package. News reports in recent days suggest progress has been hard to come by in resolving issues between GOP members in the House and Senate on that legislation. There is a good chance this bill will be shelved for the year and considered anew in the new Congress after the first of the year.

With regard to TEA-21 reauthorization, despite statements by certain leadership-level people to the effect there will be an effort to move something in the lame-duck session, we see no evidence of that. We had the opportunity to discuss this matter one of the key leaders of Democrats in the Senate on Wednesday and he indicated there was virtually no chance TEA-21 could be done next week. Our staff contacts have backed-up that assessment. We continue to believe TEA-21 reauthorization is an issue for 2005.

It will be a hectic an eventful week next week. We will keep you posted on all developments.

The resignations of Attorney General John Ashcroft and Commerce Secretary Donald Evans were the first departures from President Bush's cabinet since his reelection. The two departures came for very different reasons. Attorney General Ashcroft was aware that he was a lightening rod providing fodder for Democrats who opposed his anti-terrorism policies. According to friends, exhausted after an illness earlier this year -- preemptively offered his letter before the White House initiated a formal discussion about his future. Secretary Evans, 58, a close ally and friend of the President, is eager to return to Texas to rejoin family members, who have already moved back.

Administration sources said Ashcroft's successor is likely to be White House counsel Alberto R. Gonzales. Administration sources said other contenders to replace Ashcroft include his former deputy, Larry D. Thompson, who would be the nation's first African American attorney general but has indicated he is not interested, and Marc Racicot, a former Montana governor who was chairman of Bush's reelection effort. Ashcroft's deputy, James B. Comey; former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani; and New York Gov. George E. Pataki also are on the handicap lists of administration insiders. Most are considered more moderate than Ashcroft.

Sen. Michael Enzi (R-Wyoming) is expected to take over the chairmanship of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee with the anticipated move of Sen. Judd Gregg (R-New Hampshire) to the Budget Committee.

The change for the 109th Congress likely will have little impact on the panel, given the similarities between Enzi and Gregg. They are both low-key conservatives who are able to work with liberal ranking Democrat Edward M. Kennedy (D-Massachusetts) to move legislation.

Sen. Enzi is likely to bring a greater emphasis to the impact of education, health and workforce law on rural Americans. For example, Enzi has raised concerns with the Education Department about its implementation of the No Child Left Behind Act, which requires states to establish annual tests in reading and math to help close the achievement gap between low-income students and their more affluent peers.

Enzi has been on the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee since he came to the Senate in 1997. He currently chairs the Employment, Safety and Training Subcommittee which has jurisdiction over workforce issues.

Enzi is a strong ally of business interests. He has fought against Democrats’ attempts to raise the minimum wage and to increase Occupational Safety and Health Administration regulation.

Sen. Enzi’s major task in the 109th will be trying to persuade Kennedy to revive the Workforce Investment Act (WIA) and the nation’s main vocational and technical education program, known as the Carl D. Perkins Vocational and Technical Education Act, help usher their passage in the Senate and give Democrats assurances that they will have input in any subsequent conference negotiations with the House.

On Nov. 16, Republican leaders in the House and Senate will seek a short session to deal with spending, an intelligence overhaul and not much else. The reasons for a short agenda are both strategic and political. Republicans will enjoy a stronger majority next year and are in no hurry to push measures through now.

With respect to the FY 2005 appropriations, subcommittee clerks are seeking to put together an initial omnibus for action the week of Nov. 16. House Appropriations Chairman C.W. Bill Young (R-Florida) and his Senate counterpart, Ted Stevens, (R-Alaska) both of whom will relinquish their gavels in January, want to complete the bills this year while they control the panels and can steer funding toward their states. However, they are still waiting for leadership guidance on how to handle an $8 billion gap between the House and Senate bills. Senate appropriators may be under pressure from GOP leaders to drop some of their extra spending. At this point, it seems likely that any spending added to the omnibus above the FY 2005 discretionary spending cap would be offset by an across-the-board cut from non-defense spending.

Another issue slated for debate is debt limit legislation. The government hit the current debt ceiling of $7.384 trillion on Oct. 14. That required Treasury Secretary John Snow to initiate accounting maneuvers to provide funding for government operations while remaining beneath the statutory ceiling. A scheduled auction of Treasury bills cannot be completed by Nov. 18 without congressional action.

House and Senate Republican conferees are still divided over a bill (S. 2845) to overhaul the intelligence gathering system along the lines proposed by the Sept. 11 commission and it is doubtful they will reach agreement during the lame duck session. The Senate version of the bill would give a national intelligence director budget authority over all intelligence agencies and allow the government to make public the total cost of intelligence. The Department of Defense backs the House version that would give the intelligence director less authority and allow funding for intelligence to be funneled through secret accounts to Pentagon intelligence agencies.

With Republicans in firm control, an outside chance exists that they will bring up the Central American Free Trade Agreement, which many Democrats oppose. Republicans were unwilling to vote for it before the election because of trade-sensitive agricultural and textile interests in their states.